Cap is right! Let’s talk.
Numbers! The kind of numbers that don’t require you to have a Cosmic Calculator (yet)!
Hello everyone and welcome to what may be the first installment of my article series, tentatively named By The Numbers. My name is Shane and I like card games AND numbers, so naturally I figured I should combine those two things into one riveting data sheet…
That didn’t happen, (well, it did happen, but data sheets aren’t as exciting to everyone) but what I did do is crunch some numbers that may or may not help you the next time you think “I can take 3, but I can’t take 4… What are the chances of that happening though?”
What does this mean? Well, I sure am glad I asked. What I did was collect and record the boost symbols in each modular set, determine the average within each set and with those averages, you can do some quick math to figure out approximately what the average damage per turn will be for any given combination of modules.
Doesn’t that sort of take the fun out of the randomness? Another good question, Shane.
It might be seen that way and I can understand if data like this isn’t for you. It’s not surgically accurate, it’s just a guideline for people who like to see some numbers before heading off to storm Doomstadt. (Think of it like a warning, but not THAT Warning. This warning is sorta useful.)
Then let’s get to it! This weeks installment? He’s big, grey and recently known to both Break AND Take! It’s…
Rhino!
Here’s some basic info about this big fellas eponymous modular set:
This Modular set Rhino has 17 cards that it adds to the Encounter Deck. The set contains more of course, but we don’t need to count the Main Scheme or Villain Cards. Of those 17 cards, 5 have 0 Boost icons, 5 have 1 Boost icon and 7 have 2 Boost icons. By adding those icons together, we can determine an average number of icons.
((0+0+0+0+0) + (1+1+1+1+1) + (2+2+2+2+2+2+2)) = 19
We then divide that value by the number of cards, like so:
19/17 = Approximately 1.1
This means that the average amount of additional damage will be +1.
We can then do something similar with all of the additional modules and recommended modules for a scenario.
Standard Average: 0.6
Bomb Scare Average: 1.3
Once we’ve got the averages for each of these sets, we can add them together and divide by the number of sets we included, in this case we have 3.
1.1+0.6+1.3 = 3
3/3 = 1
Therefore, the average boost damage is almost exactly 1. Which makes perfect sense for what is considered to be the “Starter Scenario”. There are very few big damage spike turns and the Villains bonuses to their actions are statistically very average.
The thing that makes Rhino such a deadly adversary isn’t that he’s got a real doozy of an attack value. It’s that we really start to feel it when he attacks extra times each turn! Using the Standard recommended configuration of Rhino, Standard, and Bomb Scare, there are 5 Treachery cards that allow Rhino another attack on any turn. This means 5 out of 30 cards we can encounter mean our Rampaging Rhino gets a round 2 against our heroes.
Any given encounter card has approximately a 17% chance to result in an extra attack from the big guy. Can your squad handle something like that?
Rhino’s set is 41% Treachery cards, 24% Attachments, 24% Minions and 12% Side Schemes, adding in the Standard and modular sets only makes those numbers even smaller. The real reason you’re getting Charge+Stampede is because it’s easier to remember getting crushed than sneaking buy without incident (but I’m no psychologist).
The Expert mode of Rhino does change the numbers a bit, but they’re still fairly predictable. Using the recommended modules in addition, our Boost Average goes up to about 1.4. This means that we’re going to see a good amount of +1 damage turns, but we’re certainly going to be seeing higher than that more frequently than the Standard mode (and by a larger margin).
In conclusion, it’s safe to say that Rhino will just about always be dealing 1 damage in addition to his printed value in any given scenario. So if the question is can you take that next attack and the difference is life or death? Better hope to get lucky or just never leave home without a trusty Shield Block! Thanks for reading and see you next time!
Editors Note: Thanks for reading our first community created article. And shout-out to Attercop for showing us some of the numbers behind the Rhino scenario! – KennedyHawk